ProMoSol
Feasibility study: Forecast and analysis of global solar radiation for the determination of energy production potential in the framework of a smart grid environment
In times of resource shortage and increasing energy demand, renewable energy gains more and more importance. With an installed solar power of 52.6 MWp (end of 2009), photovoltaic already delivers a noticeable input to the energy supply in Austria¹. This poses a new challenge for the power network operators. There is a risk of local overvoltage resulting from high power input from photovoltaic systems at times of low consumption (e.g. typically on Sunday afternoons). In extreme cases this can lead to a system collapse. Thus, the frequency stability of a power network is of crucial importance. To guarantee this, grid operators need to know in advance how much solar energy will be put into the power network in the next hours or couple of days. Forecasting solar power input requires solar radiation information for a multitude of spatially distributed solar collectors in a time horizon of up to two days.
However, at the moment there are only a few methods available for solar radiation forecasts with high temporal and spatial resolution for energy production prediction purposes. Therefore, numerical models have to be developed and applied, which includes not only global forecast data but also measured point data for modelling and analysis of atmospheric interactions. Additionally, in regions like Austria with heterogenic orography, the spatial resolution of the radiation values plays a crucial role. Here, a minimum spatial resolution of 1 x 1 km should be achieved.
In the framework of the project ProMoSol,
UBIMET tackles the challenge of spatially and temporally highly resolved analyses and forecasts of solar radiation for determining energy output of photovoltaic systems. Aim of the project is to develop a method for area-covering calculation of the direct solar radiation from measured and forecasted total solar radiation and synoptical parameters, under consideration of shadows of clouds, terrain and neighbouring objects (such as buildings and trees). The main focus lies on forecasting direct solar radiation as a basis for energy production prediction for photovoltaic systems. The developed method also helps to produce a radiation map from archived measured solar radiation values, which can be used as decision support for finding appropriate locations for new solar collectors.
Project duration: 1 January 2011 to 31 October 2011
Funding: This study is funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund.
pdf: promosol_en.pdf
¹) Photovoltaic energy barometer 2010 – EurObserv'ER Systèmes solaires - Le journal des énergies renouvelables nº 1 - 2009, S. 76, 3/2009 (
www.eurobserv-er.orgpdf/baro196.pdf)
